the Law of Gravity seems work in financial markets too -- whatever goes up, eventually comes down.
Just a reminder to those who had decided to jump into the plantation stocks lately.
.A 30-years Price Chart for Crude Palm Oil：
source: http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=palm-oil&months=360
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Bought in 5,600 unit of Notion-Warrant today.
Together with the 400 unit that already in hand, my total holding in Notion-WA now become 6000 unit, which has a market value of about RM4000 according to the closing price today.
I'm very positive about the future prospect of Notion. In my own prediction, even in a pessimistic case, the share price of Notion 4 years later should be somewhere not lower than RM6.00.
Reason of buying the warrant (instead of its share) is to maximize the potential return. I'm willing to hold these warrants until its expiry date at 2015.
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Activities during this year:
The buys and sells are mainly a result of a trimming process of my portfolio during the middle of this year. Kossan was bought when a new RM3000 fund was injected in October. Rex, IQgroup and UMSNGB are bought based on net-working-capital approach.
For the year 2010, my portfolio's average return rate is about 34% p.a., quite satisfied for me as it's much better than KLCI's performance.
Recently, share prices of glove-companies had experienced some great fall.
I had decided to take the opportunity, and already bought in 1000 unit of Kossan on Friday.
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Why choose Kossan instead of Harta?
Diversification.
Hartalega is still my favorite glove-stock now. However, it had already made up 25% of my total portfolio value. Further increase in the weight will make me feel uncomfortable. Thus, I decided to buy in other glove-maker, in order to have some diversification.
Now that Harta and Kossan together form about 30% of my portfolio value. This already near my upper-limit. I will stop buying any glove-company in future, until their weight in my portfolio drop into a more comfortable level, e.g. 20~25%.
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Why choose Kossan instead of Topglov or Supermax？
I'm in opinion that all these three companies are great for investment. In fact, I often recommend people buying (diversify) into all these 3 companies.
There are two reason why I choose Kossan among the top-three's.
First and the main reason, I'm more favor into nitrile glove makers (that's why I invested in Hartalega). Among these 3 companies, Kossan has highest exposure into the nitrile glove market -- 40% of its revenue are from nitrile-glove. And I believe that the ratio will increase further in the coming years.
2nd reason, Kossan has a lowest PE among three companies. Now, the prospect of these companies are all great. However, people may loose interest on them if their growing pace slow down in the future. And this may lead to a lower appraisal of their values and share prices. For me, Kossan's lower PE means a higher safety-margin.
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The new member of my value-stocks-portfolio. Bought at 25 sen per share, a discount of almost 40% from its net-working-capital (based on Jun-2010 report).
Listed on KLSE since 2006, UMS-Neiken is principally involve in the manufacturing of electrical wiring accessories.
a quick glance:
Revenue fell significantly in 2009. However, EPS and dividend were relatively stable compared to 2008.
Its inventories, receivable, and borrowings show a slight increase recently.
The trading volume of its shares is quite low.
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