19 January 2009

Recommend reading: Common Stock and Uncommon Profit

This is one of the best investment book in the world.

It can be found in most MPH bookstore in Malaysia. I bought it and finished reading it last year, and it change my investment thought and strategy.

The book is about how achieve great investment result by buying into some great companies' stocks and hold them for long period. A company that worth holding for long period must be one that will keep growing for decades. So, we can say that this book is about how to pick a "long-term growth stock".

In the books, Fisher list out some attributes that may concern an investor when he is trying search for a good company.

Fifteen points tolook for in a common stock

  1. Does the company have products or services with sufficient market potential to make possible a sizable increase in sales for at least several years?
  2. Does the management have a determination to continue to develop products or processes that will still further increase total sales potentials when the growth potentials of currently attractive product lines have largely been exploited?
  3. How effective are the company’s research and development efforts in relation to its size?
  4. Does the company have an above-average sales organization?
  5. Does the company have a worthwhile profit margin?
  6. What is the company doing to maintain or improve profit margins?
  7. Does the company have outstanding labor and personnel relations?
  8. Does the company have outstanding executive relations?
  9. Does the company have depth to its management?
  10. How good are the company’s cost analysis and accounting control?
  11. Are there other aspects of the business, somewhat peculiar to the industry involved, which will give the investor important clues as to how outstanding the company may be in relation to its competition?
  12. Does the company have a short-rage or long-range outlook in regard to profits?
  13. In the foreseeable future will the growth of the company require sufficient equity financing to that the larger number of shares then outstanding will largely cancel the existing stockholders’ benefit from this anticipated growth?
  14. Does the management talk freely to investors about it affairs when things are going well but “clam up” when troubles and disappointments occur?
  15. Does the company have a management of unquestionable integrity?

x x x

What so special about these points is, most of them are not directly reflected in the financial statements of a company.

Instead of judging a company from financial view, Fisher pay more attention on "human factors". In other words, the growth company that we should look for is the one with great management, great teams and great culture. These are the factors that makes the company's growth sustained years after years.

If you could identify some companies that meet most of these 15 points, and buy their stocks with sufficient low price, then you'll probably enjoy some great returns in the next twenty or thirty years, by doing almost nothing -- just holding them.

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi, i like to share some of my thought about your investment portfolio. Most of the your stocks are cash-rich, but rarely trade. I wish to recommend some relatively more liquid, steady dividend yield and yet still fit value-stock criteria and cash rich stocks. There are Keladi, Protasco, Zhulian, NCB, NTPM, BP plastic, Uchitech, Ken holding, Dijaya, Naim Cendera, Plenitude and Fima corp.

Unknown said...

hng,

thanks. I'll do some study on the stocks you recommend.

Anonymous said...

Another sector you might intereted is REITs. Although most REITs have borrowing cost ranging from 18-48% gearing, but there all opt for at least 90% net profit payout, generating steady yield of 9 - 13%. In addition, as most investment properties under REITs have longterm tenancy agreement ranging from 3-6yr, sustainbility earning should be intact at least in next few yr while waiting for global economy recover.

Anonymous said...

Take for example, based on UOA REITS annouce result. Q4 EPS=2.9; cumulative =10.24sen. As UOAREITS intend to distribute most of its earning; it have declared final income of 5.55sen;cumulative = 10.03sen. Based today closing price of 99sen; this workout to be 5.6%, payable semi-annually.

Another example, AxisREITs has just today declare final income of 7.87sen. Based on today closing price of 1.26, yield is 6.2%. In addition, starting from 2009, AxisREITs will adopt income distribution policy from semi-annually to quarterly payment, which mean beside these final income of 6.2%, investor can now look forward another 3.1% in just another 3 month (total yield in 3 month time: 6.2% + 3.1% = 9.3%), much more better than FD.

Unknown said...

ya... their dividend yield are quite attractive. But there are also plenty of high yield stocks out there.

My problem is, I'm not good in property investment. So it's better to keep myself away from REITS.

anyway, thanks for your suggestion.

Anonymous said...

HI, Your article on MAS-PA highly interest me. I search thru KLSE web but it does not mention anything on those unconvert MAS-PA will be redeem at RM1. Where did your get the information? If i read it properly, for those unconver MAS-PA, they will change it to cash at the ratio 4.05MAS-PA to the current 1 MAS share (either cash/share)

Unknown said...

Hi,

you can get the information about MAS-RCPS in the annual report of MAS.

at any time from Nov-2008 to Oct-2012, the RCPS is convertible to MAS' share at ratio of 4.05 RCPS to 1 common share. (MAS has an option to pay you cash equal to its share price instead of issuing new share).

any unconverted RCPS will be redeemed at RM1 per RCPS after maturity (Oct-2012).

Anonymous said...

u crazy guy, invest in such a lousy stock/ portforlio.. some more mentioned about long terms?? haha.. Malaysia stock market can hold for long term meh?? haha..

Unknown said...

My ambition is to find some stock for long-term holding.

However, "long-term" and "short-term" are relative concept. I still can't find a stock in Malaysia that really can hold for very long term (decades), like what Fisher suggest.

in my portfolio, I have a lot of small stock which I pick according to Graham's "net working capital" method. I bought them because they are undervalued, and I'll sell them any time when their price back to normal. I may not holding them for very long time, but just a few years.

When I bought Titan, my planning is to hold it until 2010 or later. For MAS-PA, I'm ready to hold it up to maturity. and for AirAsia, I'm going to hold it for 5 to 10 years.

Investment is a lifetime process. and I'm still learning.

Anonymous said...

Hi, I really don't get it on wht MAS-PA is trading at a discount. The discount is either is either a opportunity for me to buy more or is a trap as it might b something other ppl aware & which we don't. Anyway, I still purchase some & will purchase more if it drop.

Anonymous said...

hng,

seem like a good idea her...i will study the stocks and do more research..

Anonymous said...

Just wondering wht happen to this blog. The blogger no longer update it? Anyway, your MAs-PA has went up. Good analyse and good call.

Unknown said...

thanks for concern. I'm just busy at work & study during this few month.

now a bid free already... think can resume blogging very soon.

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